Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
