Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
